The first half of 2025 saw markets absorb a massive increase in U.S. tariffs, an unprecedented deregulation program, and stimulus plans in Europe and the United States. Global stock indices, however, rebounded after their April lows to return close to their historical peaks. This gap between political noise and the trajectory of financial assets deserves to be broken down by asset class, as not all have reacted in the same way.
Bonds, stocks, real estate: diverging trajectories in 2025
Markets do not form a homogeneous block. The table below summarizes the dynamics observed across three major asset classes over the past few quarters, based on data available from Columbia Threadneedle, JLL, and Russell Investments.
| Asset Class | Recent Trend | Signal to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Global Stocks | Marked rebound since April lows, levels close to historical peaks | Widening of the leading group beyond mega-cap technology stocks |
| Bonds (Rates) | Beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, but uncertain pace | New medium-term bond regime, yields still attractive on certain maturities |
| Commercial Real Estate | Selective recovery in prime assets (logistics, data centers), volumes up about 18% year-on-year in some global markets | Transactional liquidity has increased but remains below pre-crisis rates |
What stands out is that the recovery is not uniform. Stocks quickly regained their previous levels. Bonds offer a different context than in the past ten years. Commercial real estate is restarting, but only in very targeted segments.
To track these developments over the weeks, the news on Full Invest details movements by asset class and possible reallocations.
New Bond Regime: What the Rate-Cutting Cycle Changes
Financial news sites remain very focused on the CAC 40 and U.S. indices. The bond market, however, is undergoing a medium-term restructuring that few mainstream information flows detail.
Columbia Threadneedle speaks of a new bond regime characterized by structurally higher yields than during the 2010-2020 decade, combined with the onset of a rate-cutting cycle. This regime is not simply a return to the previous situation.
What This Means for a Diversified Portfolio
An investor who had deserted bonds in favor of stocks during the zero-rate period now faces a new reallocation. Bonds are becoming a source of real yield again, not just a hedging tool.
However, the pace of rate cuts remains uncertain. Central banks must contend with residual inflationary pressures and expansionary fiscal policies on both sides of the Atlantic. The idea of a quick return to rates close to zero seems dismissed by most available analyses.
Commercial Real Estate: The Recovery Does Not Affect All Segments
JLL data shows an increase in direct investment volumes in certain global markets, but this recovery is very selective. Three types of assets concentrate the bulk of demand:
- High-quality downtown offices, known as “prime,” which have low vacancy rates compared to secondary buildings
- High-end logistics, driven by online retail needs and last-mile proximity requirements
- Data centers, where demand is exploding with the deployment of infrastructure related to artificial intelligence
Secondary or poorly positioned assets remain in difficulty. The distinction between “core” real estate and the rest of the market has never been more pronounced.
Transactional Liquidity: An Indicator Not to Be Overlooked
The speed of real estate transactions remains below the rates observed before the health crisis.
For an investor in SCPI or unlisted real estate, this data matters. A market where transactions take longer to conclude means longer exit times and a liquidity premium to factor into the yield calculation.
Widening of the Stock Market Beyond Tech Giants
Russell Investments highlights a phenomenon that has begun to materialize: the leading group of stock markets is widening. The extreme concentration of performance on a handful of U.S. mega-cap technology stocks, characteristic of 2023-2024, seems to be easing.
Fundamentals have almost fully recovered the losses related to the tariff episode in April. Earnings growth estimates have returned to levels close to those before “Liberation Day.”
Conversely, this widening does not mean that all stocks benefit from the rise. Emerging markets exposed to U.S. tariffs remain under pressure, and sector selectivity remains a major differentiating factor between portfolios.
Active Management and Capital Flows
In a less concentrated market, active management finds a more favorable playing field. When five stocks drive the entire performance of an index, passive management mechanically dominates. When performance spreads out, stock selection becomes a measurable lever for outperformance.
Capital flows reflect this evolution. Interest in diversified strategies, including bonds and real assets, has strengthened compared to the exclusive focus on tech indices.
The mid-2025 investment market can be read through three simultaneous movements: a bond regime that again offers real yield, a commercial real estate sector partially recovering only in quality assets, and stock markets that are beginning to reward diversification.
The key takeaway remains the state of real estate liquidity, still far from its complete normalization, which reminds us that the ongoing recovery does not erase all the constraints inherited from recent years.